Following the open-house health care debate (2/26/10) “moderated” by the person with the greatest vested interest, I am going to make four hazardous predictions:
1 The President’s popularity is going to surge for a while because Americans like fairness and the debate was a demonstration of fairness as compared to the back-room dealings that preceded it.
2 For the next week or so, the media, including the liberal media, are going to analyze what really happened. It’s going to become increasingly clear that the President did not know what he was talking about, did not understand the 4500 pages of the two bills, did not understand the cost of his proposal, did not understand the mood of the public.
3 The Democrat leadership is going to make a half-hearted attempt at passing the President’s bill with a simple majority through reconciliation, also known as the “nuclear option.” It will fail in almost all respects. Nevertheless, the Democrat leadership will declare victory.
4 Around June, July, we are going to see the launching of a new health care reform initiative. It will have bi-partisan sponsorship, the real thing, led by Senator McCain. The new bill will comprise less than one hundred pages total. It will include the obvious: option to buy insurance across state lines, tort reform, limited portability of health care benefits, possibly an end to the exemption of health insurance companies from anti-trust laws . (Read the last again; you won’t believe it.) Moderate Democrats will get something to, I don’t know what, but not a public option. Democrats will get something suitable to take to the November election
Then, we will all go to the beach,
If any of these predictions fail, or all, you will have to forgive me. Although I had the time, I wasn’t able to force myself to listen to the whole seven hours. I am just tired of the whole thing. We need health care reform. The Democrat approach is almost entirely wrong-headed. Our institutions are working. The rest follows.