Dr J. Is Wrong, Wrong, Wrong!

A couple of days ago, in my posting: “Well Done, Mr Obama,”

(https://factsmatter.wordpress.com/2011/10/20/well-done-mr-obama/)

I got carried away, I have to confess. Imprudently, I offered to bet that the total cost of the American participation in the Libyan clean-up was probably “less than 1/1000 of 1% of US GDP.”

Richard Allan, a sometimes reader and vigilant critic, soon pointed out how far off my guess was. He called on what is presented as a Pentagon estimate published in ABC News under the by-line of George Stephanopoulos

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/03/cost-of-libya-intervention-600-million-for-first-week-pentagon-says/

Let me say right away that I have no reason to reject this source but neither do I endorse it. (I have not looked into it deeply enough.) At any rate, according to this source the American cost for the first week alone was $600 million. The US GDP in the past two or three years stood around $14 followed by twelve zeros. Unless I screwed up again because of so many zeros and no enough space on the back of the envelop I am using, I am very wrong and Mr Allan is more than right. In fact, I am wrong by a factor of 4 multiplied by something like the number of weeks adjusted for the fact that we probably spend less in following weeks than in the first week.

Anyway you look at it, if someone had had the gonads to bet, I would have radically lost the best: The total cost of American intervention in Libya is much more than 1/1000 of 1% of GDP.

In fact every week, that our participation lasted my share of its cost must have been as high as the price of a mediocre, medium size-coffee. ( $600 million/300 million Americans.) Believe me, I am deeply ashamed of my mistake!

I thank Mr Allan for teaching me a valuable lesson.

Advertisements

About Jacques Delacroix

I am a sociologist, a short-story writer, and a blogger (Facts Matter and Notes On Liberty) in Santa Cruz, California.
This entry was posted in Current Events. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s