Immigration and Jobs (I)- For Conservatives

A couple of thoughts about immigration. It seems that there is a widespread belief in the US that immigrants take jobs from Americans. It makes superficial sense if you also assume that the number of jobs to be filled is fixed and that just about anyone can do any kind of work.

Both assumptions are mostly false. Here is an example that illustrates why.

I keep hearing native-born Americans trained in various high-tech fields who claim that they are unemployed because of competition from low-cost H1B visa holders. H1B visas go to foreigners with skills deemed to be needed by the American economy. A large number of H1B vis holders are from India, many are from China; they also come from a wide variety of other countries, including Russia, France, Bulgaria, etc. The implicit affirmation is that were such visas stopped completely, those who complain would step right into the vacant jobs.

Two things. First the claim that foreign HB1 visa work for less is largely unsubstantiated although it should be easy to investigate such abuse. (One of my Facebook friends gave me evidence in support of that claim a few days ago but I misplaced it. Sorry!) Second, I think it’s illegal to pay H1B less than Americans. Why would many employers risk a distracting lawsuit? Of course, a few might because there are irrational people everywhere.

Next and last: Hundreds of thousands of high-tech jobs are going begging as I write. Are employers so vicious that they would rather have the work not done at all than to give it to a credentialed American? Or is it more likely that the unemployed native-born high-tech workers have skills that do not match demand? If the second supposition is correct, ending the H1B visa program would cause even more high-tech positions to remain empty. Of course, this would have a negative effect on everyone, on every American’s prosperity.

Missing from this narrative: the possibility that high power, accelerated re-training programs would bring unemployed Americans the skills the high-tech sector requires.

I have to begin a confession that ‘s going to make me even more unpopulat locally than I already am. I mean unpopular among my conservative friends. I taught in an MBA program in the middle of Silicon Valley for 24 years, two quarters each year. It was an evening program squarely directed at the ambitious hard-working. During that span of time, I must have had 150 students from India. I remember only one who was a bad student. I was intrigued so. I made inquiries. Sure enough, he had an Indian first name and last name, and the corresponding appearance but he was born in the US.* I cannot report so glowingly about other – non Indian – students that sat in my classroom through the years.

This little narrative proves nothing, of course. Consider it food for thought. Do it especially if you voted for Pres. Trump – as I did.

* Disclosure: I am married to an Indian woman. She is not in high-tech unfortunately.

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Illegal Immigration: Pres. Trump’s New Measures

I can’t wait for the raging assaults by the pseudo-cultural elite and by the whiney media against Pres. Trump to stop to begin criticizing some of his decisions, as I would with any other president.

I have heard and read reports that the president intends to launch a policy of accelerated repatriation of illegal aliens. It will single out criminals for priority deportation (as was the case under Mr Obama). At this point, almost everybody agrees (except a few morons in my own town of Santa Cruz; ask me) about getting rid of illegal aliens who are real criminals, especially the violent ones. Again, the new policy sounds a lot like Mr Obama’s, with a few details different. The details often matter when it comes to human lives, also when it comes to traditions of government. Here are two such details.

First, I have heard that even traffic tickets qualify an illegal alien for quick deportation. Make a wrong u-turn and your life gets broken up.

Second, I have heard and read that even being merely charged with a crime places you at the head of the line for deportation. Someone who looks like you steals a car. You get charged by mistake. You are gone.

The first detail seems awfully rough to me. I would feel better if the word “recidivist” were included. A person who breaks driving rules repeatedly is a trouble-maker we can do without. I guy who is too distracted to interpret the U-turn sign (could be me – once) is not exactly a criminal in the real sense of the word.

It’s true that such extreme severity would improve the driving of all illegal aliens. The claim is probably also correct however that it would interfere with aliens’ (legal and not) willingness to cooperate with the local police. Aside from this, I would bet it would involve significant law enforcement costs just to process traffic tickets through to the Immigration Service. I am a conservative, I am against big government, even against big government at the local level. I don’t want tax money, federal, state, or local, to be wasted processing a U-turn violator. It seems irrational to me.

The second, detail concerns the treatment of people only charged with a crime. It’s simple. I just don’t want any of them to be included in the priority list. Having any branch of government treating the accused as guilty simply goes too strongly against everything I believe. It’s un-American

Yes, I have not forgotten that the subjects have no right to be in the country in the first place. I don’t care. It’s not about illegal aliens’ rights. Immigrants , legal or not, have no rights as a category as far as I am concerned. They only possess the ordinary human rights of anyone under American jurisdiction.

It’s about a slippery slope for all. If we begin officially thinning out the traditional wall between “charged” and “guilty,” where are we going to stop?

I understand that a lawyer would argue that the person is technically not being deported for the imaginary crime of being charged but because he has no right to be in the country, period. Do you know the one about the lawyer….

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For several years, I have had faithful readers, or at least, visitors on my blog from the Philippines. I am dying to know who they are. Please, send a private message through my email:

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Barring Entry from Seven Countries. Dear Muslim Fellow Citizens:

Pres. Trump’s executive order temporarily barring entry into the US to those coming from seven countries was a rude act.* To make things worse, it was badly implemented, causing inconvenience and even distress to a number of innocent travelers. What’s more, it’s unlikely to be very effective in its stated goal of keeping Americans safe. The reason the administration gave for the order was to give the appropriate agencies some time to improve their techniques for vetting ordinary travelers from those countries.

As I write, the bar is in circuit court where it will be decided whether a previous federal judge’s order suspending application of the bar holds or not. There is a mano-a-mano between a largely liberal circuit court and a fairly conservative and decisive new executive. Whether the executive prevails or not, the order was given and it will be remembered as one of the first acts of the Trump administration. It’s worth discussing.

Much of what has been said about the order is false, ridiculous or dishonest. I urge you to preserve your collective credibility by not falling for the falsehoods, and worse, for partially true but misleading statements you have heard. Some, you have heard repeatedly.

Beyond this, I suspect you have not done enough collective self-examination. I suspect this because no one reasonable talks to you frankly about matters concerning you. There are plenty of ill-informed hysterical, obscene anti-Muslim shouts which you probably (rightly) shut out. The rest of America is too paralyzed by political correctness to say anything to you that may seem critical. I am reasonable and I am not paralyzed by political correctness. In addition, there is a good chance I am pretty well informed. (Go ahead, Google me.) Where I am not, I listen to advice and corrections with an open mind. I wish to talk to you about mistrust of Muslims and about what you may not have done to represent yourselves in a light inducing others to be fair. Lastly, I wish to address you about what you have done that has not been helpful.

The persecution of Muslims

Fact: The seven countries the executive temporary banning order targeted are all predominantly Muslim countries.

That does not make the order an anti-Muslim measure. If Pres. Trump had wanted to persecute Muslims, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt and even India (yes, India) would be heading the list. There are something like forty predominantly Muslim countries in the world. How do you think the seven were chosen?

The seven were originally selected by the Obama administration as dangerous countries from which it was difficult to obtain enough information to vet travelers. This explains why most Muslim countries – by a long shot – did not make the list. In the case of five Arab Muslim countries on the list, they are there because they are failed states unable to provide credible information if they want to. Iran, is a special case. Pres. Trump, and some of us, think that the information should not be trusted that comes from a country where the political class has been smiling benevolently for the past thirty years on demonstrators whose main demand is “Death to America!” Taking people at their word is not a dirty trick, right? The sixth country on the list, Sudan, is there for both reasons. It’s an ineffective state and its leadership is openly hostile to America. It’s unable to cooperate in vetting and it will not.

Why should Pres. Trump want to go to extraordinary lengths to vet travelers from those particular countries, you wonder suspiciously? It’s because – you are right – the Muslim world is widely thought to be a privileged source of terrorism. That’s in the 21th century. In the 20th century, it would have been (largely Catholic) Ireland, the (Catholic) Basque area of Spain and, especially, the (Hindu) Tamil area of Sri Lanka. The fact that no IRA terrorist, no ETA terrorist and no Tamil Tiger terrorist ever claimed to be acting in the name of God or of his religion may make a difference though. What do you think?

Personally I don’t see how anyone can disagree with the proposition that Muslim countries (not all, some, of course) generate large numbers of terrorists when those same terrorists massacre many more Muslims than they do anyone else? I can’t believe you are not aware of the many car bombs detonated near mosques during prayer from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Iraq. And have you ever thought of what the proportion of Muslims must have been at the massacres in the French night club or during the Bastille Day festivities, in Nice, France? Let me tell you: Many French Muslims are immigrants from rural areas in Africa. It’s been true for a long time. They have more children than people born in France. Whenever you find children and young people, in France, you are looking at many young Muslims. And, go back to the “Underwear Bomber” trying to blow up a plane over largely Muslim Detroit, during Christmas Eve, of all times. Who do you think would have died, primarily? How many Christians are on a plane on that night? (Reminder: He is a young man from a good Nigerian family. He is having a bad time in federal prison, right now.) It’s your duty to be informed about the people who are massacring both your people and your neighbors, I think.

Incidentally, the fact that Muslims die much more than other people under the knife of neo-jihadists does not give your passivity a pass.

This all is sufficient to explain well why there are only Muslim countries on the ban list. It would have been more polite of the Trump administration to add, say Iceland, Paraguay, and Laos, or Timor. Perhaps, they did not think of it. No one is perfect. Perhaps they did thing of this trick and decided to not implement it to signal that political correctness has to go, at last.

Before I move on, note what the paragraphs above do not (NOT) say, lest your memory tricks you later: They do not say that “most Muslims are terrorists,” as stupid liberals allege such statements mean. I don’t think most Muslims are terrorists. I do not think that many Muslims are terrorists. I am not even sure the terrorists who claim to be Muslims are Muslims, or good Muslims. I don’t really know. However much I regret it, however, I can see how it is easy to find justification for religious acts of violence in the Islamic sacred Scriptures. (Ask me or tell me plainly that I am wrong, that there are no such justifications in the Scriptures.)

Trump’s order was intended to keep terrorists where they are for the time being, until we learn better to spot them. It was intended to protect me and my children, and you and your children. I have my doubts about its efficacy, as I have said (See also my short FB essay on January 31st). You should feel free to criticize it on that ground without going to motives you have little way of knowing. “Stupid” is not the same as “prejudiced.”

The Muslim contribution to the mistrust of Muslims: Inaction

Next, I need to ask you if Muslims collectively have done anything to contribute to widespread mistrust of Muslims in America. First I need to ask what American Muslims did not do that they should have done – and can still do. This can be brief.

Large American Muslim organizations have put themselves repeatedly on the public record denouncing terrorism perpetrated by those who claim to be inspired by Islam. They are quick to assert that religious violence is incompatible with Islam, that the neo-jihadists are simply bad Muslims, or even, not Muslims at all. This is all for the good although – I am sorry – most of the protestations sound hollow. One of the things missing, incidentally – is condemnations by obvious religious authorities.

What bothers me personally, and probably others who don’t have the time to think about it, is the lack of individual faces to accompany condemnations of neo-jihadist barbarism. There are two exceptions I know of, two Arab-American men who sometimes come on TV to reject barbarism or any links to American Muslims vigorously. I don’t have either name in mind right now and I would not name them anyway because I don’t have a clear idea of the risks they are taking.

What I am missing is reactions from individual, private persons of Muslim faith, people with a face. I ask how many of you said anything – outside the family – when ISIS was beheading an American journalist and then, an American social worker, all on video. I wonder if you said anything, at work, even if only at the water fountain, when ISIS was burning people alive in cages. How many of you expressed horror aloud or when it was turning thousands of young women and girls into sex slaves. How many dismiss Boko Haram which is burning its way through North Western Nigeria as a (black) African monstrosity?

Some of you, most of you, or all of you, think these questions are superfluous and even, that my expectations are outrageous. I have a friend, a young Muslim woman who tells me straight up that terrorism is no more her problem than mine. It’s unrealistic and it’s false. The abstract category “American Muslims” (I am not using “community” deliberately) turns out enough terrorists and would-be terrorists to destroy this presumption of distance between you and the prevalent kind of barbarism. Note also that, irrespective of provocations, since the masterful, well-planned, very successful aggression of 9/11, there has not been a single act of private terrorism against Muslims or Muslim institutions in America. (Hectoring of women wearing the hijab in public places doe not quite count as terrorism.) Mind what I am really saying: It’s not your job to stop terrorism committed in your names but you would be wise to reject it forcefully and loudly, and also in person when you have a chance.

The Muslim contribution to mistrust of Muslims: Actions

There are also the things American Muslims did that contributed to the process leading to the Trump administration temporary ban on travel from seven Muslim countries.

Let me help you remember. In 2008, you voted for Barack Obama in large numbers although he was a leftist of zero demonstrable achievement but one. (He did pass the bar exam.) I don’t know if you did it because the father he never knew was a Muslim (a drunken Muslim), or because his middle name is “Hussein,” or because you were caught up in the great Democratic emotional sweep. Later, in 2016, you largely supported the candidacy of an obvious liar and cheat who had already sold some of the country to foreign powers before even being elected. What’s more, she presented herself squarely as Pres. Obama’s successor. Many of you just bet on the wrong horse without much of an excuse for doing so. (I think I have read somewhere that American Muslims are better educated than the average American. Correct me if I am wrong.)

Had more of you voted Republican, they just might have influenced the result of the primary, perhaps, Marco Rubio (my candidate) would have won it, or the honorable Mayor Giuliani. The presidential election could have played out differently. If it hadn’t, there is a chance you would have still earned a voice within Republican politics. You chose instead to trust in liberal cliches, to go with the easy flow of falsely generous liberalism.

Even with Donald Trump as president, you would have avoided getting trapped in the Democratic identity mishmash. You would have saved yourselves the embarrassment of ending up squeezed in their book between illegal aliens from China and transgender activists. At this point, your main public, visible representation in American politics – by default, I realize – is the pathetic, corrupt loser’s personal assistant. She is very elegant but she is married to a gross pervert. The fact that her parents are members of the Muslim Brotherhood does not help. It’s not a terrorist organization exactly but it’s very unfriendly to America and to its main values. By the way, you appear to still not be paying enough attention. The fact is that, right now, thousands of Americans are talking (and screaming) in the streets in defense of, and often in the names of Muslims in general. Yet, the voices of American Muslims themselves are hard to perceive in the din. It makes no difference; when the fog clears up, some Americans are going to blame you for the riots. You are innocent, of course but, to a large extent, you put yourselves there.

There is danger in letting others speak in your place on the public square. It’s the same others who recently used the armed power of government to force others to violate their conscience. (By forcing a Catholic nuns’ order, for example, to provide contraceptive services to their employees.) How is this going to play out tomorrow when your own religious practice needs protection, I wonder.

The executive order and our constitutional order

There is much misunderstanding everywhere about the legal nature of the order. It’s all over the media and elsewhere. One Iranian woman, a distinguished MD, I am told, is suing the federal government because she suffered some travel inconvenience as a result of the executive order. (I don’t know if she is a Muslim; it does not matter.) I hope the suit only shows confusion about the American Constitution rather than some sinister plot. Whatever some little liberal judge in the boondocks may say, the Constitution does not apply to those who are not under the power of the US government. This includes citizens, legal permanent residents, illegal permanent residents, prisoners of war, to some extent, and those who are already on US soil by whatever means, or otherwise under exclusive US control. It does not apply to Mr Yokama in Osaka, to Mrs Dupont in Marseille, or to Ms Reza in Iran, or on a layover in Dubai.

The media have also shown growing confusion about the nature of a visa. It’s not a contract between a government and a private foreign party. It’s not enforceable in any court. It’s a promise to admit and evidence that someone is considered acceptable at a particular time. Either of these assessments can change in minutes. Incidentally, American immigration officers at all levels have always had discretion to do what they think is best: You can arrive at LA International from Finland, with a perfect visa, and have a fat federal employee in short sleeves get suspicious of you and deny you admission on the spot. There is no legal recourse, never has been.

Nation-states avoid canceling visas in ways that would look arbitrary, for two reasons. First it makes the relevant government lose international credibility. That’s a subtle phenomenon. No one knows how much denials and cancellation push the relevant country over the brink. Thus, any government, including, the Trump administration assumes it has a good deal of discretion in this matter. The second possible consequence of many negative visa events is that other governments may take retaliatory measures: You do it to us, we do it to you or even, we deny your citizens any visa. It’s not surprising that some governments of small, poor countries just don’t care much about serving up reciprocation to a large, desirable country such as the US. If you are an alien and you have a visa for the US, it means that you have a good chance to get in. It’s not a guarantee.

The president and his conservative supporters are not responsible for the confusion about the Constitution whipped up and smartly supported by liberal opinion.


By now, I suspect, you are thinking “Islamophobia.” I don’t quite know how to defend myself against accusations sitting in your mind about what’s going on in my own mind. It’s like suspecting me of watching porn inside my head. How can it convince you that I don’t? Nevertheless, for what it’s worth, nothing predisposes me to a blind, irrational hatred of Islam or of Muslims. I have known Muslims all my life. I have had nothing but harmonious personal relationships with them. I think there is much to love in Islamic culture. For example I am fond of calligraphy in Arabic, the language of the Koran, so fond that the Profession of Faith (the Sha’hada) hangs over my bed. (I wouldn’t be surprised if this usage by a non-believer is considered blasphemy, somewhere or other.) The few times I have lived among Muslims, I have liked it. There is even a Muslim country where I would like to live permanently now that I am old. (My wife won’t hear of it; what do you know!)

Islamophobia” is not a real concept anyway. It was invented by liberal intellectuals to shut up debate up. If it were not so, there would be other similarly formed words such as “Protestanphobia” and “Bhuddistphobia.” The impression that Muslims in America take refuge behind that rotten old hyena hide is deplorable. It feeds many unfair stereotypes.

And, by the way, what would be wrong with being an Islamophobe? I mean in the American tradition of freedom of conscience and freedom of speech? Being a Muslim is not a race, an unalterable fact about a person. It’s a choice. If I understand a little about Islam, it’s even the supreme choice. There is widespread confusion there also.

Why should anyone not be morally, intellectually allowed to detest a choice you can reverse any time you wish? Take me, for example. I used to be a Catholic. I am not anymore. I am an ex-Catholic. Anyone could have blamed me for being a Catholic, a believer in fairy tales and a supporter of an organization massively complicit with child rape. “Catholicophobe? would not become an insult; it did not. Why would you deserve special treatment, in this regard?

No one at all blames me either for being an ex-Catholic, by the way. There is (well-founded) Catholicophobia in this country. There is no such thing as “ex-Catholicophobia.” I am also aware as I write that changing religion is called “apostasy.” I am further aware that apostasy is punishable by death in a number of countries. They are all Muslim countries, as far as I know. (Please, correct me if I am wrong on this.) One of the advantages of living in the US, as you and I do, is that there is no penalty here for transgressions of conscience. There is no punishment for walking away from a set of beliefs. This is never discussed in narratives that use the word “Islamophobia.” We don’t speak enough about such matters. Muslims, in particular, don’t speak enough. (And, I don’t believe the media suppress such conversations. The liberal media will print anything said by anyone identified as “Muslim,” especially if the speaker wears a hijab.) I realize that one can find many statements by American Muslims on the Internet. That’s not good enough; I shouldn’t have to do research.

There is also much confusion – often spread by the liberal media – about the First Amendment to the US Constitution. That main amendment to the Constitution is widely misunderstood, by native-born citizens and by many others as well. It states categorically that government cannot have a favorite religion; it says that government cannot interfere with religious practice or belief. Moreover, the Constitution forbids government to administer religious tests as a precondition to holding any government office. That’s it!

There is no part of the US Constitution that protects anyone from criticism by private parties. There are countries where such criticism is illegal; the US is not one of them. Personally, I hate Communism and Devil worship, and I also detest obsessive talk about base-ball statistics, for example. Do I have a right to my dislikes? May I express them openly? Should I count on the protection of my government -whose first assignment is to protect me – when I express these dislikes? May I say safely, “Devil worship is an abomination” ? How about, “Christianity is a false religion”? Should you, personally, have to forbid yourselves from detesting Devil worship aloud? How does the Constitution answer these questions?

Since I began talking calmly about things some Muslims don’t enjoy hearing, let me continue a little way. Let me affirm as a preamble that you have as much right to be here as anyone. If you are an immigrant like me, you might have even a little bit more right than most. (Immigrants contribute somewhat more than the native-born.) Irrespective of your rights, if you are a person who dislikes the separation of Church and State, if the gap between religion and government is anathema to you, I hope you will leave. I won’t do anything about you but you must know that I don’t want you as a fellow-citizen. And, if you take my suggestion, please, take with you as many Baptists, Lutherans and Catholics of the same belief you can find. I hope our government will do its best to limit or prevent the entry of people who hold such beliefs.

To end: It’s likely that most of you are people with whom I would like to have a cup of coffee or a meal. I suspect that we have more in common than not. You would yourselves be astonished at what a pleasant person of culture I am in real life. (Go ahead, Google me.) We would talk about our children and our grandchildren. We would share our experiences in the country I chose. This probable commonality creates no obligation for me to tolerate nonsense. The Trump temporary executive order of mention may well be regrettable. If it’s unlawful – I don’t see how – it will not be implemented. Our institutions are working. In the meantime, it’s not the end of the world. We, Americans, you and I, have bigger fish to fry.

About Syria: There are tens of thousands of Syrian refugees we could take in without endangering ourselves. We should do it, for two reasons. First, it the right thing to do and it’s good for our souls. Second, we are partly responsible for the unending disaster in Syria. I have not forgotten the red line in the sand the dictator Assad was not supposed to cross or else…. That was before the Russians were heavily involved. At the time, the US Air Force and the US Navy could have destroyed 95% of Assad’s planes and helicopters in one morning if there had been political will. It would have made it extremely more difficult for him to continue fighting and to massacre civilians. We did not intervene. Now, we have to give a hand, a big hand. I don’t see why this help should include a path to citizenship

*The executive order has been suspended by a judge (a single judge) as I write. The Administration fast track appeal has been rejected. Afterwards, the administration appealed to the 9th Circuit Court. Our institutions are doing their work even if it’s at the cost of some judges believing it’s their job to make laws. To my mind, the fact that the order was issued at all is important whether it’s ultimately put to work or not.

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The Anti-Trump Women’s March

   The day after the inauguration of Pres. Trump, there were protests all around the country, many quite large. They were called a “Women’s March” for reasons that were never completely clear. I speculate below about the name. The media seldom do a good job of helping us make sense of such mass events. So, I watched fairly closely the well attended demonstrations in my city of Santa Cruz (California). It’s a good observation test case because it’s fairly compact and because it’s practically conservative-free.* I only know two avowed Republicans in the city besides by wife and me. I am sure there are more. I am just making the point that we are so sparse, we don’t casually bump into another or, we keep quiet about it. Santa Cruz is liberalism/progressivism in a nearly pure state. During the campaign, I saw zero (0) Trump bumper stickers, and, interestingly, only three Hillary stickers. There was a large number of Bernie Sanders stickers however. When Sen. Sanders was eliminated from the race through cheating, there was no protest, notably.

The protest rallies on Saturday following the Inauguration included a preponderance of women. Many sported the stylish two-horned pink or red hat nicknamed, or officially named (I don’t know) the “vagina hat.” The men there may have been feminists or, they had other goals in mind. Some, the ugly ones, were probably trying to earn sex points. The crowd. carried a multitude of hand made signs, mostly small ones. I don’t know why they were small. It may have been for lack of experience in demonstrating, marking the presence of many first-timers, or it may have been that the function of the signs was to instruct neighbors in the crowd or simply, self-proclamation: I exist!

I gave up quickly on the task of making a list of all, or even of most of the signs in sight. Three kinds stick to my mind the day after. The first kind proclaimed fear about “women’s rights” – undefined. I can think of, imagine of, three categories of claims advanced by this first kind of signs. First, worry about the federally guaranteed right to abortion. When conservatives acquire a parcel of power, there is always concern that the Christian activists among them will impose pregnancy on all women. (I mean instead of say, contraception, or abstinence, or perversion.) Hardly anyone ever mentions that should the Roe and Wade Supreme Court decision that made abortion a federal right be reversed, abortion would not thereby become illegal. The decision would simply revert to the states. It’s doubtful any one state of the fifty would outlaw abortion outright although some restrictions might be imposed, including on very late abortions. I think women are deliberately kept in the dark about this simple constitutional fact.

The second category of female claim, I suspect, was about pay. American women have been told for so long, with so much insistence that employed females earn less than employed males earn that the belief has taken root that there exists massive sex discrimination in employment. In fact paying men and women different rates for the same work has been illegal for many years. Doing so would invite financially juicy class action suits.** The academic social sciences have allowed the falsehood to thrive for years without intervening in the public arena. (There are good scholarly articles in respected journals that show that it isn’t so. Ordinary women don’t read them and of course feminist leaders suppress them if they know of them.) This academic failure to intervene is either criminal neglect or intellectual malpractice.

The third category of specifically female protest I discerned simply concerns disappointment about the failure to elect the “first female president” in the person of the astonishingly flawed Hillary Clinton. Mrs Clinton deserved to lose for several reasons I need not list here. Had the Democratic Party selected a normal woman to run though, there would be a very good chance she would have prevailed against the also flawed Donald Trump. It’s even tempting to think that almost any woman not Mrs Clinton would have beaten Mr Trump. In a related but different vein, it seems to me that disappointed female voters don’t give any thought to the fact that even older male conservatives like me would vote in a second for Condoleeza Rice, for example.(who is very happy as a professor at Stanford, I hear and very unfortunately so). It’s a straightforward male chauvinist pig stating this: I believe that women are, on the average, less well informed than men, especially as concerns politics. In the old days not that remote when newspapers were a primary form of political news, you never saw a woman reading a newspaper, anytime, anywhere. (That’s a cross-cultural observation.) *** “It’s our turn to get a president; it’s only fair!” I have not heard for years any argument to the effect that women in positions of political power govern differently than men in the same positions. So, the point of a woman president is?

Aside from statements associated with the female sex, many placards proclaimed some version of “solidarity.” They referred to the situation of illegal aliens. Apparently, sizable numbers of liberals believe that the Trump administration will actually deport 11 or 12 million resident illegals. (For those who read me from overseas: It simply cannot be done.) That such a belief persists is the conservatives’ faults. I would bet large amounts of money that no such thing will happen or even be attempted. And, incidentally, illegal aliens brought here as children will not be expelled. Trump stated late in his campaign that he would focus on illegal aliens that had committed crimes. The memo has not reached the protesters that it was exactly the Obama policy about illegal immigrants. Our fault!

The third kind of placard was noticeable for is brevity and for its euphonious qualities. It was also the most disturbing to this lover of democratic constitutionality. It said, “Dump Trump!” I don’t know to what extend those carrying this sign understand its implications. It seems to me (please, correct me) that the slogan can mean either one of two things. On the one hand, it can be an invitation to impeach Pres. Trump. That’s the only constitutional way to unseat a president. It’s a legitimate recommendation but in context, it’s absurd. One has not ground to impeach a president who has not had the time to do anything wrong yet as president. It would be decent to wait a couple of days to give him a chance to commit treason or a handful of the other impeachable crimes. Those who held the placard and meant “Impeach” are disturbingly childish: “I want my satisfaction now. Screw the facts” It makes me glad they lost.

The alternative interpretation to the “Dump Trump” slogan makes me appreciate even more the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.**** The slogan means simply that we, Americans, should cancel the results of the last election, pretend it did not happen, perhaps, appoint Mrs Clinton although she lost fair and square.***** Such a wish expresses a fascist mentality, of course. I am using the word cautiously here. I don’t believe that everyone I don’t like, every program I detest is fascist. I don’t – for example – believe that Senator Sanders is a fascist or that he would lend himself to leading a fascist movement. There is a strong fascist strand in the current progressive movement. The rioters in DC on the day of the Inauguration are a very small and unimportant part of it. Watch for those who ride their bicycles to work and those who push baby-carriages.


* I call it fondly: “The People’s Socialist Green People’s Republic of Santa Cruz.”

** If you are not sure what a class action suit is, ask me here.

*** Yes, bad sampling, blah, blah, blah…. I can’t afford to wait for the results of five or six well designed studies to develop an opinion for action. Besides, where such studies exist, they tend to be ignored. (See above.)

**** If you read this from outside the US, you may want to Google the Second Amendment. It makes for interesting reading.

***** Reminder: If (IF) Russian hacking actually influenced the results of the election, it’s only by exposing the vulgar corruption of the Democratic Party. I could make an argument that Mr Putin deserves an American medal for helping American democracy clean itself up.

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Russia’s Interference in US Elections: the Official Evidence

I read the whole document delivered to the Senate and to the President-elect on January 5/6 2017 that describes the main intelligence agencies’ case for Russian meddling in the 2016 election. It was rough going because of the document’s numbing repetitiveness. The author of the report is referred to grandly in several places as “The Intelligence Community.” I think there is no such creature. The real authors appear on p. 6 :

“This report includes an analytic assessment drafted and coordinated among The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and The National Security Agency (NSA), which draws on intelligence information collected and disseminated by those three agencies.” (Bolding mine.)

I find the report plausible by and large but it contains nothing (0) constituting proof or evidence. I am aware of the fact that there may be good reasons rooted in concerns for national security why evidence must not be included in the document. Yet, of course, this deprives it of credibility to a great extent. And, nothing at all could be included? Hard to believe.

The credibility of the report resides entirely, it seems to me, in the fact that the heads of three main American intelligence agencies presented a consensus of what they affirm are findings. Left with nothing else, it’s fair to try and assess the worth of this consensus.

The consensus is more than nothing but it’s not much. It’s more than nothing because the three partners are in a position to watch each other, even to suppress cheating by one of their number. (I hold firmly to the view that conspiracy is unlikely because it’s dangerous and costly. But see below.)

My reservations are as follows: First, each one of these signatories, the people under whose names the report was published, is a political appointee. I don’t deplore this fact, it’s pretty unavoidable. I don’t have a better suggestion. Yet, each of the three directors is a member of the D.C. establishment and probably (probably) shares this elite’s revulsion about Donald Trump, the person, and disbelief about his election. This does not describe a conspiracy but a shared cultural understanding which requires no consultation.

And then, the Directors’ terms are coming to an end at the new president’s whim. They may (may) be interested in future appointments, including with lobbyists. One might see them as top-ranking swamp dwellers. I am awaiting leaks from inside the three agencies to confirm or disconfirm the political appointees’ report. If there is not any in the next month, my skepticism will decrease.

One of the three, the FBI Director, gave us recently a demonstration either of intellectual corruption or of irresolution, on the occasion of his report on the Clinton’s email scandals. If memory serves, he substituted himself for the Attorney General (herself compromised) to recommend that Mrs Clinton not be prosecuted in spite of massive evidence against her. His presence in the relevant trio detracts from its collective credibility, as far as I am concerned. Other might think that he betrayed Clinton by making any public pronouncement at all on the erased emails. This interpretation of recent events would also detract from the trio’s collective credibility.

So, I must return to the intrinsic value of consensus, a topic I brushed on above. As I go there, personally, I get a strange sense of déjà vu. When I was a young man and a young scholar, every French person I knew who was anybody was some kind of Communist (Stalinist, Maoist, Trotskyst, you name it), or a fellow traveler, or even to the left of the Communist Party (très chic this). It was so bad that I often stood alone denouncing the obvious crimes and failures of communism; I was ostracized, I was persecuted in my career by contributors to and supporters of the consensus. (I can think of only two honorable prominent French intellectuals who never joined he consensus at all: Raymond Aron and Jan-Francois Revel.)  Few of those Communists were monsters, few believed in the virtuousness of mass deportations, or of concentration camps, or of any of the other cataloged horrors. Many of those whose hostility I was then facing would readily agree now that communism was a bad mirage. They should have known better but they did not. Yet, none has apologized. “Let bygones be bygones,” they think. The fact that they are so numerous facilitates self-forgiveness.

They were all victims of a collective delusion, in spite of their intellectual credentials. For many, the delusion lasted twenty or thirty years. This personal experience induces me to assign limited value to the consensus of those who are in the know. Incidentally, I flatter myself that thanks to this same experience, I have developed a good nose for hoity-toity totalitarianism. I smell a rat here.

But those of you who are old enough can dispense with my personal views. We remember well how the US went to war and invaded Iraq in 2003 under the guise of removing Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. An even broader consensus than the one about the present report supported the view that such objects existed within Iraq. The consensus then included not only the main American intelligence agencies* but the intelligence services of several major powers.** It even included the French service although the French government was resolutely opposed to the invasion. Well, it turned out, after a dedicated thorough search that there were no weapons of mass destruction to speak of in Iraq, consensus be damned!

Annex B of the report explicates the measurement devices behind the judgment of degree of certainty expressed on diverse questions. It’s a potentially useful tool. In principle, any smart newspaper intern could go through the whole report and scores its various assertions for credibility as reported. This might lead to an overall assessment of credibility for the whole report. I think no one will bother. The major newspapers don’t care or don’t want to. The TV channels are not much better. (Fox Business, might be an exception.) Nevertheless, I credit the report authors for including this technical annex. Incidentally, Annex A spends six pages and even a graph exposing the anti-American contents of RT television channel, which no one watches. That kind of futility does not inspire confidence in the whole endeavor. It creates the impression that the authors are straining to satisfy outgoing President Obama’s wishes.

And then, finally, ignoring all my grounds for skepticism, we are left with the question of how Russia – Russia – would ever have so much traction. How would a second-rate country be able to disturb so deeply an American political process that has survived for nearly 250 years through war, civil war, economic crises, etc. ? It’s worth remembering in this context that Russia’s population is less than half the American. That it was in steep demographic decline from 1990 until last year. That it has a fragile national economy dependent on the export of oil and gas, an economy the size of California’s, or Italy’s. That Russia’s GDP per person is less than half the American. And – by the way – why wouldn’t the Russian oligarchs worry that anything they do to us, we could do to them, and much worse?

Go figure!

I think we have better things to do than obsess about Russian hacking. Concern about Russian military adventurism – unchecked for 8 years of Obama administration – would make more sense.

* The CIA retracted a little but that was several days after the invasion had been launched.

** Donald Rumsfeld asserts this for Britain, Australia, Spain, Italy, Poland, Russia, China, France, and Germany.  (“Known and Unknown: a Memoir,”  p.434.)

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